Expert tips Labor’s Jane Kelsbie to lose Warren-Blackwood at 2025 State election

One of WA’s best independent election analysts has dismissed Labor’s chances of retaining the Lower House seat of Warren-Blackwood in next year’s State election.

First-term Labor incumbent Jane Kelsbie will vie to hold onto the seat she won in a surprise victory over Nationals veteran Terry Redman in 2021 — aided by a landslide Statewide victory credited to then-Premier Mark McGowan’s popularity.

Poll Bludger analyst Dr William Bowe said he couldn’t see Kelsbie overcoming the historic trend towards conservative votes in the electorate.

“This is very likely a contest between the Nationals and the Liberals,” he said.

A redraw of electoral boundaries to include the entirety of the Augusta-Margaret River shire was giving some left-leaning voters hope.

Shire polling booths in 2021 showed strong support for Labor and the Greens, whose preferences helped catapult Ms Kelsbie to the win.

The strong Green vote even had the WA Greens last month identify Warren-Blackwood as its target for the party’s first Lower House seat in regional WA.

Dr Bowe wasn’t sold on the Greens’ chances, or Ms Kelsbie’s profile.

“I shouldn’t rule out that Jane Kelsbie — whose name I had to look up, not that that really proves anything — has been such a good member that I’m writing her off too quickly, but it would undoubtedly be a surprise if she won,” he told the Times.

The seat has been a traditional Nationals WA bastion, but there were concerns the rural party as well as the Liberals were over-catering to the electorate’s Manjimup base — by fielding prospects with strong ties to that heartland — at the expense of the changing demographics to the north of Warren-Blackwood, as well as the Denmark region which also favoured a strong environmental bent.

The Nationals selected farmer and businessman Bevan Eatts as their best hope, while former Shire of Manjimup president and sitting councillor Wade de Campo would go into bat for the Liberals.

Meanwhile, questions were also floating around the Greens’ decision to put forward ex-Extinction Rebellion activist Julie Marsh from Denmark as their pick.

Dr Bowe said the electoral redistribution wasn’t enough to change the fundamental dynamics of Warren-Blackwood.

“The seat is a little better now for the Liberals relative to the Nationals than it was before, but ultimately it comes down to which of them has the most popular candidate and the best campaign,” he said.

“The redistribution strengthens the Greens a bit, but they’re not seriously in contention.

“They would probably have chosen their candidate more carefully if they were.”

The election is scheduled for March next year.